Monday, June 7, 2021

Weather Discussion for Monday June 7, 2021

Normal high/ low temperatures for June 7-June 15 (high/low) Redding 89/60, Chico 88/56, Quincy 80/42, Chester 76/40, Susanville 78/45, Grass Valley 78/50, Weaverville 83/44, Mt. Shasta 75/45, Yreka 80/45, Alturas 76/40


This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring. 

The big change in the weather is starting.  The high pressure ridge has moved eastward and a low pressure trough is developing along the coast.  This trough will be along the coast later today and Tuesday.  The trough is moving very slowly and will move across the north state Wednesday.  There will be a few clouds today and Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher elevations north of Redding.  Wednesday as the trough moves through it will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the foothills and mountains with isolated activity possible in the north end of the valley.  Temperatures will be 8 to 14 degrees below normal through Wednesday.  Gusty southwest to northwest winds will occur in the afternoons and evenings. 

Thursday looks sunny with temperatures warmer but still below normal.

Friday and early Saturday another low pressure trough will be off the coast (see map below).  However, at this time the large high pressure area will begin to rebuild over the western U.S.  This will be a battle between opposing weather systems.  The trough will want to push east and the high will be forcing it northward.  This time of year I expect the high will win and we will see the hot weather return.  The forecast problem is how far east will the trough make it before it gets pushed northeastward?  The two major weather models are very different.  One blocks the trough from getting close enough to the coast to affect our weather.  The other drags it across the far north end of the state.  Look for a few clouds Friday and Saturday with a chance of showers over the northwest corner of the state.  Sunday and Monday the chance of showers will be over the areas from Redding northward.  Areas in the valley south of Corning and over the Sierras south of Mt. Lassen will probably be mostly sunny Friday through Monday with temperatures back near normal. 

The Old Forecaster
  
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2 comments:

  1. Do you have a link for the two different models of weather forecast? hanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. GFS...the U.S. model... https://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm Pick North America. The model is run 4 times a day. Times are at the top and aren't available till about 6 hours after the run time.

    European Model http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ewall.html Left column near the top ECMWF run at 12Z and 00Z... 5am and 5pm PST

    Pages are a little hard to navigate and European has less products available since they charge for others.

    ReplyDelete