Monday, March 29, 2021

Weather Discussion for Monday March 29, 2021

Normal high/ low temperatures for March 29-April 5 (high/low) Redding 69/45, Chico 70/43, Quincy 60/31, Chester 55/27, Susanville 57/30, Grass Valley 60/37, Weaverville 64/33, Mt. Shasta 58/31, Yreka 61/32, Alturas 57/27

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring. 

High pressure is still off the coast.  A low pressure area and frontal system are moving through Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.  Today will be mostly sunny and temperatures will continue above normal.  Gusty north winds will move into the area during the day.

Tuesday through Thursday skies will be clear and daytime temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal.  Gusty north winds will continue through midday Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday a low pressure trough will begin to develop or deepen off the west coast (see map below).  Temperatures Friday and Saturday will slowly cool with light to moderate south winds in the afternoon.  

It is not uncommon to see differences in the forecast models in the 7 to 10 day forecast period.  What is interesting in this case is for the past 3 to 4 days the models have had a very consistent difference.  The European model splits the offshore trough and keeps a relatively strong portion off the coast through early next week.  The GFS (US) model splits the trough and moves a weak portion through Sunday and Monday.  We will hope the European is correct but expect something closer to the GFS.   Look for light rain or scattered showers Sunday and Monday.  Snow levels above 6000 feet. 

The Old Forecaster
  
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6 comments:

  1. I always enjoy your blog and when I need the best possible weather information you are my trusted source. I do have a question that I think only you can answer. I have been living in the Sacramento valley since 1975. I cant remember a time when the north wind blows down the valley as it has for the last 3 years. Obviously weather changes over time as does climate. Is this a normal pattern where a high pressure system parks off the coast and runs that horrible and dry and dusty wind down the valley? It negates any rain we had and drys the soil. To me and others I talk to, there is a belief that the north wind is blowing more than ever, but I have no method to prove this. Anything you have to offer would be welcome. I trust you the most. Please keep up the good work!!

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  2. The large scale high pressure ridge has been just off the coast. We have had more north winds over the past couple of years than normal.

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  3. That is what I suspected but have no data to back it up. It seems that this may be a transitional pattern until an equilibrium is established? I am hoping that laws of probability swings in the other direction. Love the blog Sir.

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  4. That was my question a couple days ago, thank you for this answer. I thought so too Dennis. I am here since 1979 so we are close in years of residency Thank you. This worries me.

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  5. That was my question a couple days ago, thank you for this answer. I thought so too Dennis. I am here since 1979 so we are close in years of residency Thank you. This worries me.

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  6. Glad that I can help others understand what is going on. Still trying to figure it out my self. It is my hope that this is a transitional pattern and we can stop with the horrible north wind whipping down the valley. I wish that there were records readily available to research this. FYI, when this happens in the summer, it makes it unbearable for days. Poor air quality, high temps, tinder dry. Tying to confirm if this is a temporary pattern or not.

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