Saturday, September 26, 2020

Weather Discussion for Saturday Sept. 26, 2020

 Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 21-Sept 28  (high/low) Redding 90/55, Chico 88/52, Quincy 80/35, Chester 76/35, Susanville 75/41, Grass Valley 80/49, Weaverville 85/40, Mt. Shasta 77/41, Yreka 80/42, Alturas 77/33

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

High pressure is beginning to rebuild over the western U.S. Sunday through next week a strong high pressure ridge will be over the western U.S.(see map below).  Skies will be clear.  Temperatures will start warming today and Sunday through Tuesday will be 12 to 18 degrees above normal.  There will be a "little" cooling after Tuesday.  Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will move into the north state today and continue through late Monday.  Gusts 35 to 40 mph will occur in some areas. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Weather Discussion for Wednesday Sept. 23, 2020

 Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 21-Sept 28  (high/low) Redding 90/55, Chico 88/52, Quincy 80/35, Chester 76/35, Susanville 75/41, Grass Valley 80/49, Weaverville 85/40, Mt. Shasta 77/41, Yreka 80/42, Alturas 77/33

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

This morning's satellite picture (below) shows a low pressure area and frontal system moving toward Canada and the Pacific Northwest.  The southern end of this system will move across Northern California tonight and Thursday.  We will see a few clouds from this system with light showers over the northwest corner of the state.  Temperatures today and Thursday will be near normal.  Gusty southwest to west winds will occur in the afternoons.  

Friday high pressure begins to rebuild over the west.  This will result in a very strong high pressure area over the west Saturday through the mid part of next week (see map below).  Temperatures Saturday through early next week will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.  Strong and gusty northeast to east wind will occur Saturday through midday Tuesday.  

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, September 21, 2020

Weather Discussion for Monday Sept. 21, 2020

Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 21-Sept 28  (high/low) Redding 90/55, Chico 88/52, Quincy 80/35, Chester 76/35, Susanville 75/41, Grass Valley 80/49, Weaverville 85/40, Mt. Shasta 77/41, Yreka 80/42, Alturas 77/33

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

High pressure is over the western U.S.  Today and Tuesday we will see smoky skies with temperatures slightly above normal.  Winds will be south to southwest in the afternoon.

Wednesday clouds will increase in afternoon as a weak front approaches the coast.  This system will bring cooler weather with a few showers on the north coast Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday..  

A strong high pressure ridge moves back over the west by the weekend for a return of hot weather and gusty north winds.

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, September 19, 2020

Weather Discussion for Saturday Sept. 19, 2020

  Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 14-Sept 21  (high/low) Redding 90/57, Chico 88/53, Quincy 82/38, Chester 77/38, Susanville 77/42, Grass Valley 81/49, Weaverville 86/41, Mt. Shasta 77/43, Yreka 81/44, Alturas 78/35

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

A weak high pressure ridge is back over the western U.S.  Today through Friday we will be under a weather pattern like the one shown on the map below.  This is a normal early fall pattern with the jetstream just to our north.  Sunday through Friday we will have clear skies with a few clouds at times from frontal systems moving by to our north.  Temperatures will be normal to a few degrees above.  Light north winds are expected today.  Sunday through Friday winds will be light nights and mornings and southerly in the afternoon.

Late Friday and Saturday a weak low pressure trough and frontal system will move through the area with cooler temperatures and light showers over the higher elevations.

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Weather Discussion for Wednesday Sept. 16, 2020

 Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 14-Sept 21  (high/low) Redding 90/57, Chico 88/53, Quincy 82/38, Chester 77/38, Susanville 77/42, Grass Valley 81/49, Weaverville 86/41, Mt. Shasta 77/43, Yreka 81/44, Alturas 78/35

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

Today should be a repeat of yesterday.  Smoky with high temperatures about 5 degrees above normal. Winds will increase from the south and southwest this afternoon.  Thursday the low pressure area that is off the coast will be approaching the Pacific Northwest and will move inland Friday (see map below).  Thursday will be a little cooler with gusty southwest to west winds in the afternoon.  Wind gusts of 35 mph are expected on the upper slopes and ridges.  The trough will bring a few clouds to Northern California.  Late Thursday and Friday there will be light rain or showers over the northwest corner of the state.  Temperatures will be cooler Friday with lighter southwest to northwest winds.  

High pressure will be back over the area by the weekend and Saturday through at least the mid part of next week we will have clear or smoky skies with temperatures a few degrees above normal. 

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, September 14, 2020

Weather Discussion for Monday Sept. 14, 2020

Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 14-Sept 21  (high/low) Redding 90/57, Chico 88/53, Quincy 82/38, Chester 77/38, Susanville 77/42, Grass Valley 81/49, Weaverville 86/41, Mt. Shasta 77/43, Yreka 81/44, Alturas 78/35

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

The high pressure ridge is over the west.  Today through Wednesday we wil see smoky skies with daytime temperatures a few degrees above normal.  During the afternoons south and southwest winds will increase with the strongest winds over Lassen and Modoc counties.  

Late Wednesday the high will weaken and shift east as a low pressure trough moves toward the Pacific Northwest.  This trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Thursday and early Friday (see map below).  We will see a few clouds from this system with light rain or showers over the north coast and northwest corner of the state.  Temperatures will cool to a few degrees below normal and gusty southwest to northwest winds will occur Thursday.

The weekend and early next week high pressure will be over our area. The north state will return to clear/smoky skies with slightly above normal temperatures.  

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, September 12, 2020

Weather Discussion for Saturday Sept. 12, 2020

  Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 7-Sept 14  (high/low) Redding 92/59, Chico 91/56, Quincy 84/38, Chester 80/39, Susanville 80/44, Grass Valley 83/51, Weaverville 88/42, Mt. Shasta 79/44, Yreka 84/45, Alturas 80/36

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

Today through Wednesday the high pressure ridge over the west coast will slowly weaken and shift eastward.  Smoky skies will continue with temperatures normal to a few degrees above.  Afternoon winds today will be light south to southwest. Sunday through Wednesday the northstate will see gusty south to southwest in the afternoon and early evening. Strongest winds will be on the upper slopes and ridges and across Modoc county. 

'Late Wednesday a weak low pressure trough will be approaching the Pacific Northwest and Northern California (see map below).  This system will move across the north state Thursday and early Friday.  We will see some clouds and cooling from this system with light rain or showers over  northern Mendocino county, Trinity and Siskiyou counties and the higher elevations of Shasta county. There could a light sprinkle in the Redding and Shasta Lake area.  

High pressure will rebuild over the west by the weekend for a return of clear skies with temperatures a few degrees above normal. 

The Old Forecaster

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Thursday, September 10, 2020

Weather Discussion for Wednesday Sept. 10, 2020

  

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

High pressure still over the west but weaker.   Today through Friday Northern California will be smoky, except the northeast corner of the state will stay sunny.  Temperatures in the smoky areas will be below normal and a few degrees above normal in the clear areas.  Winds will be light nights and mornings and light south to southwest in the afternoon. Not much change Saturday and Sunday except stronger afternoon south to southwest winds.  

Next week we see a change in the weather.  Early next week a closed low pressure area will be off the coast.  The 2 major models European and GFS (U.S. model) handle this low differently.  The GFS model which I show below holds the low along the coast and moves it inland, across Northern California, Wednesday and Thursday with light rain or showers north of a line from Clear Lake to Quincy.  The European moves it northeastward into the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday with the southern end bringing light showers to the coast range and areas north of Redding. 

Since we have such a dry airmass over the north state I feel we will be closer to the European.  A few clouds early next week and then showers along the coast range and north of Redding late Wednesday and Thursday.... 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Weather Discussion for Wednesdsay Sept. 9, 2020

  Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 7-Sept 14  (high/low) Redding 92/59, Chico 91/56, Quincy 84/38, Chester 80/39, Susanville 80/44, Grass Valley 83/51, Weaverville 88/42, Mt. Shasta 79/44, Yreka 84/45, Alturas 80/36

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

The good news is the high pressure area is weakening and the winds are decreasing. A massive layer of smoke covers much of California this morning.  The picture below shows the northern section of the state.  Northeast California is clear and the rest is covered by smoke.  

Today and Tuesday if you are in the clear areas temperatures will be above normal if you are under the smoke near normal. Northeast to east winds will be decreasing today and tonight most of the northstate will see light winds with east winds down the canyons east of the valley.  

Wednesday through Saturday we will see clear or smoky skies.  Temperatures will be normal to a few degrees above by the end of the week. Winds will be light.  

Sunday the high pressure area weakens further and shifts eastward as a low pressure trough approaches the coast.  This trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday (see map below).  The trough will bring clouds to the north state with a few light showers possible over the north coast and across Siskiyou county.  Southwest winds will begin to increase Sunday with gusty southwest expected Monday afternoon.

Wednesday we return to  clear skies and slightly above normal temperature. 


The Old Forecaster

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Monday, September 7, 2020

Weather Discussion for Monday Sept. 7, 2020

 Normal high/ low temperatures for Sept 7-Sept 14  (high/low) Redding 92/59, Chico 91/56, Quincy 84/38, Chester 80/39, Susanville 80/44, Grass Valley 83/51, Weaverville 88/42, Mt. Shasta 79/44, Yreka 84/45, Alturas 80/36

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

Another day of record temperatures is expected.  High pressure will continue over the western U.S. but will slowly weaken over the next week (see map below).  The main weather feature for the next 48 hours will be wind.  Winds will begin to increase from the northwest and north this afternoon and shift to the northeast and east tonight. Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will occur tonight through midday Wednesday.  Winds will be light Thursday through next weekend.  Temperatures start to cool Tuesday but will still be 3 to 6 degrees above normal by the weekend.  

While longer range models show the high weakening it still looks dry through the 20th of September.


The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, September 5, 2020

Weather Discussion for Saturday Sept. 5, 2020

 Normal high/ low temperatures for Aug 31-Sept 7  (high/low) Redding 95/60, Chico 93/56, Quincy 86/40, Chester 82/40, Susanville 82/46, Grass Valley 85/53, Weaverville 90/44, Mt. Shasta 81/46, Yreka 86/47, Alturas 83/39

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

Very strong high pressure area over the western U.S. and not much change expected for the next week (see map below) Today through Monday inland areas of Northern California, that aren't smoky (if there are any) will see near or just above record temperatures.  Even some areas in the smoke will probably break records.  Tuesday through the weekend the high will weak slightly.  This will allow slow cooling but temperatures will still be 4 to 8 degrees above normal by next weekend.  Today winds will be south to southwest in the afternoon.  Sunday wind speeds will increase a little in the afternoon and the direction will southwest to west.  Monday winds will increase from the west to northwest in the afternoon and then gusty northeast to east winds Monday night through Wednesday morning.  Strongest winds Monday night through Wednesday morning will be over the areas east of the valley, exposed areas north and west of the valley with light moderate north winds in the north end of the valley. This means for those of us in Redding smoky today and Sunday and then some clearing Monday and Tuesday.  Winds after Tuesday will be light south to southwest. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Weather Discussion for Wednesday Sept. 2, 2020

Normal high/ low temperatures for Aug 31-Sept 7  (high/low) Redding 95/60, Chico 93/56, Quincy 86/40, Chester 82/40, Susanville 82/46, Grass Valley 85/53, Weaverville 90/44, Mt. Shasta 81/46, Yreka 86/47, Alturas 83/39

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

Before I tell you no change here are a few other things...

There was a question in the comments about how common this type of high pressure ridge is.  While we usually see the southwest high push northward the last half of the summer.  This current high is about as strong as they get.

Redding normally sees about 40 days a year of 100 degree weather.  We started off slow this summer but as of yesterday Redding has had 50 days of 100 degrees or higher. 

I have inserted below this morning's satellite picture that shows the fires and the smoke.  Redding is the red "R" and you can see Tahoe in the lower right.  Winds shift today and the smoke moves back north.

Now....the satellite picture and map below look pretty much alike.  The inland areas of Northern California, for the next 7 to 10 days, will be clear or smoky with much above normal temperatures.  Near record temperatures are expected this weekend.  Winds will be light nights and mornings with south to southwest winds in the afternoon.

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, August 31, 2020

Weather Discussion for Monday Aug. 31, 2020

  Normal high/ low temperatures for Aug 31-Sept 7  (high/low) Redding 95/60, Chico 93/56, Quincy 86/40, Chester 82/40, Susanville 82/46, Grass Valley 85/53, Weaverville 90/44, Mt. Shasta 81/46, Yreka 86/47, Alturas 83/39

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

Different day same forecast.  The satellite picture and map below show the high pressure ridge over the western U.S. will get stronger.  Models indicate this ridge will say in place through the first 10 days of September.  The inland areas of Northern California will be hot and dry with daytime temperatures 8 to 12 degrees above normal and even up to 15 degrees above normal by the weekend.  Locally gusty north winds will occur today through midday Tuesday, after that winds will be light nights and mornings and south to southwest in the afternoon.

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, August 29, 2020

Weather Discussion for Saturday Aug. 29, 2020

  Normal high/ low temperatures for Aug 24-Aug 31  (high/low) Redding 96/62, Chico 94/57, Quincy 87/41, Chester 82/41, Susanville 84/47, Grass Valley 85/54, Weaverville 91/46, Mt. Shasta 82/47, Yreka 88/49, Alturas 85/40

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

The summertime high pressure area that has been over the Southwestern U.S. will get stronger over the week (see map below).  This means continued clear (smoky) with temperatures above normal.  Winds will be light nights and mornings and south to southwest in the afternoon most  days.  However there will be locally gusty north winds late Sunday and Monday. 

Longer range models show some weakening of the high after the first week of September.  The thing to watch is if the orientation of the high allows southeast flow aloft we could see more sub tropical moisture pulled northward.

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Weather Discussion for Wednesday Aug. 26, 2020

 Normal high/ low temperatures for Aug 24-Aug 31  (high/low) Redding 96/62, Chico 94/57, Quincy 87/41, Chester 82/41, Susanville 84/47, Grass Valley 85/54, Weaverville 91/46, Mt. Shasta 82/47, Yreka 88/49, Alturas 85/40

  
This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring

This morning there is a very weak upper level low pressure area off the coast.  The satellite picture, below, shows very little cloudiness associated with it.  However, as it passes across Northern California this afternoon it will trigger isolated thunderstorms over the higher elevations from Mendocino county northward to the west and Plumas county northward to the east.  Temperatures today will be near normal with south to southwest winds increasing this afternoon.  



Thursday through early next week a high pressure ridge will be back over our area (see map below).  Skies will be mostly clear.  Temperatures will warm back to above normal.  Winds will light nights and mornings and southwest in the afternoon.  

One thing to note is the difference between the European model and the GFS model.  The GFS  keeps the ridge over us early next week.  The European has a different pattern which still have clear skies, but cooler temperatures, along with gusty north to northeast winds. 

The Old Forecaster

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