Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Weather Discussion for Tuesday July 31, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 23-July 30  (high/low) Redding 100/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 88/47, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 90/58, Weaverville 97/50, Mt. Shasta 88/52, Yreka 94/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Thought I would do a Thursday update now that we are back home.    High pressure is over the west and will slowly weaken through Friday.   This means continued above normal temperatures but a degree or two of cooling each day.   Winds will be light nights and mornings and southwest to northwest in the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday a low pressure trough will move into western Canada (see map below).  This will bring further cooling with temperatures below normal by Sunday.   The trough will also bring increased afternoon south to southwest winds.  Monday and Tuesday we will continue to see slightly below normal temperatures as the trough moves slowly eastward.
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Smoke will continue to be a problem for the at least the next 3 ro 4 days.  The fires are still active and the upper level west winds will continue to dump it in the valley.

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, July 30, 2018

Weather Discussion for Monday July 39, 2018

ormal high and low temperatures for July 23-July 30  (high/low) Redding 100/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 88/47, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 90/58, Weaverville 97/50, Mt. Shasta 88/52, Yreka 94/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Another shortened blog.   House still standing and neighborhood untouched so hope to get back today,  High pressure will continue over our area but will weaken slowly.   Temperatures today through Tuesday 4 to 8 above normal then cooling to normal by the weekend.  Winds will be light and then light to moderate southwest to northwest in the afternoon

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, July 28, 2018

Weather Discussion for Saturday July 28, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 23-July 30  (high/low) Redding 100/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 88/47, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 90/58, Weaverville 97/50, Mt. Shasta 88/52, Yreka 94/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Short blog today since we were evacuated.   High pressure still holding and will remain in place for the next week.  Temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal.   Winds will be mostly light except southwest to northwest in the afternoon.   The fire area will continue see west to  northwest winds on the upper slopes. 

After 7 days the models diverge with the GFS (US) model keeping a high pressure ridge and European weakening the high as a low pressure trough moves into western Canada.

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Weather Discussion for Wednesday July 25, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 23-July 30  (high/low) Redding 100/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 88/47, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 90/58, Weaverville 97/50, Mt. Shasta 88/52, Yreka 94/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Ref comment from Mark.  The standard computer models show forecast skill out to 7 to 10.  There are some "climat" models that are run weekly or monthly.   I will try to include info from them when available. 

The high pressure continues with little change expected through the weekend (see map below).  It looks like the high will weaken a little next week.  The inland areas of Northern California will remain sunny with some afternoon cumulus clouds over the mountains.  There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms today and Thursday over Siskiyou, Modoc, and Lassen counties.  Hottest days will be Thursday and Friday when temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.  Today and the weekend temps will be 6 to 12 degrees above normal.  Next week we should be 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Winds will be light. 

The longer range models I mentioned above show some cooling or continued weakening of the high pressure area the first week of August.   However, they do keep the high centered over the west through the month.

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, July 23, 2018

Weather Discussion for Monday July 23, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 23-July 30  (high/low) Redding 100/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 88/47, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 90/58, Weaverville 97/50, Mt. Shasta 88/52, Yreka 94/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

I am running out of ways to say "no change".   High pressure is over the west and will hold (see map below).  Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected today and Tuesday over the higher elevations north and east of the valley.  Wednesday the isolated storms will be east of the Sierra Cascade Crest. 

Temperatures will continue hot with Tuesday through Thursday seeing daytime readings 8 to 12 degrees above normal.   Temperatures by the weekend will be back to 3 to 6 degrees above normal.  Winds will be light. 

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, July 21, 2018

Weather Discussion for Saturday July 21, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 16-July 23  (high/low) Redding 99/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 87/46, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 89/57, Weaverville 96/51, Mt. Shasta 86/52, Yreka 93/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The satellite picture and forecast map below show 2 things.   First, a strong high pressure is over the western U.S. and will stay there for at least the next week.  Second, subtropical or monsoonal moisture is being pulled northward over California.  This moisture will cause isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the mountains today.  The thunderstorms will be a little more widespread Sunday and Monday but still over the foothills and mountains.  The thunderstorms taper off Tuesday as the moisture is pushed eastward.  

Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees above normal today through Monday and then heat backup to 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the rest of next week. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Weather Discussion for Wednesday July 18, 2018

***HOT***

Normal high and low temperatures for July 16-July 23  (high/low) Redding 99/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 87/46, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 89/57, Weaverville 96/51, Mt. Shasta 86/52, Yreka 93/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The hot weather will continue.   Strong high pressure is over the western U.S, and will stay there for at least the next 7 to 10 days (see map below).  Today and Thursday we will see daytime temperatures 8 to 12 degrees above normal with some areas in the north end of the valley at just above the 110 degree mark.  Temperatures will cool down Friday through Sunday to above 3 to 6 degrees above normal and then warm up next week. 

The other weather feature to watch is the monsoonal moisture that is being pulled northward from the Southwestern U.S.  Friday through Sunday this moisture will trigger afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the north state.

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, July 16, 2018

Weather Discussion for Monday July 16, 2018

***CONTINUED HOT***

Normal high and low temperatures for July 16-July 23  (high/low) Redding 99/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 91/45, Chester 87/46, Susanville 90/52, Grass Valley 89/57, Weaverville 96/51, Mt. Shasta 86/52, Yreka 93/54, Alturas 90/46

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

High pressure is still over our area, but the monsoonal moisture that fueled the mountain thunderstorms of the past few days has moved east.  The map below shows little change for the next week. Today through midweek the inland areas of Northern California will be sunny and hot with high temperatures 6 to 12 degrees above normal.  

Thursday through Saturday another batch of sub tropical or monsoonal moisture will be pulled northward and this will result in isolated mountain thunderstorms. 

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, July 14, 2018

Weather Discussion for Saturday July 14, 2018



Normal high and low temperatures for July 9-July 16  (high/low) Redding 99/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 89/44, Chester 85/46, Susanville 89/51, Grass Valley 87/56, Weaverville 94/51, Mt. Shasta 85/51, Yreka 92/53, Alturas 88/44

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Looking at the morning satellite picture and forecast weather map for next week (both below) you can see that not much change is expected in our large scale weather pattern.   The inland areas of Northern California will be sunny and hot with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  We will have periodic surges of monsoonal or subtropical moisture move northward and these will trigger thunderstorms over the mountains.  One of these surges will trigger mountains thunderstorms today and Sunday with another batch of moisture expected move northward next Friday and Saturday.  There is a chance of a thunderstorm moving over the north end of the valley tomorrow (Sunday).  

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Weather Discussion for Wednesday July 11, 2018

***HOT***

Normal high and low temperatures for July 9-July 16  (high/low) Redding 99/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 89/44, Chester 85/46, Susanville 89/51, Grass Valley 87/56, Weaverville 94/51, Mt. Shasta 85/51, Yreka 92/53, Alturas 88/44

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A strong high pressure ridge continues over the U.S. and will shift a little further west over to the next week (see map below).  This means the inland areas of Northern California will see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal with light winds.  

The thing to watch is how far north the monsoonal moisture now over the Southwestern U.S. will be pulled northward by the southerly flow around the west side of the high pressure area.  At this time it looks like we will see a few clouds Thursday through Saturday with isolated mountain thunderstorms.  Sunday and Monday look sunny and then more mountain thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.
The Old Forecaster

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Monday, July 9, 2018

Weather Discussion for Monday July 9, 2018

***HOTTER***

Normal high and low temperatures for July 9-July 16  (high/low) Redding 99/67, Chico 975/61, Quincy 89/44, Chester 85/46, Susanville 89/51, Grass Valley 87/56, Weaverville 94/51, Mt. Shasta 85/51, Yreka 92/53, Alturas 88/44

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

This morning's satellite picture (below) shows a low pressure area off the coast.  This low will move into western Canada later today.  The large high pressure area that has dominated the U.S. weather will strengthen and move back toward the west (see map below).  This will bring hotter weather to the inland areas of Northern California.  Temperatures Tuesday through the weekend will be running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  Winds will be light nights and mornings and southerly in the afternoon.

Thursday the flow around the westside of the high will begin to pull monsoonal or subtropical moisture northward.  There is a chance of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the mountains Thursday through the weekend.

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, July 7, 2018

Weather Discussion for Saturday July 7, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 2-July 9  (high/low) Redding 98/65, Chico 95/60, Quincy 88/43, Chester 82/44, Susanville 87/49, Grass Valley 86/55, Weaverville 91/48, Mt. Shasta 84/49, Yreka 88/51, Alturas 85/43

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A large high pressure area is over the U.S. and will get stronger during the next week (see map below).  The inland areas of Northern California will be mostly clear with temperatures warming to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by midweek.  Winds will be light.  

Thursday through the weekend afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible over the mountains as subtropical moisture is pulled northward around the westside of the high pressure area. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Weather Discussion for Wednesday July 4, 2018

Normal high and low temperatures for July 2-July 9  (high/low) Redding 98/65, Chico 95/60, Quincy 88/43, Chester 82/44, Susanville 87/49, Grass Valley 86/55, Weaverville 91/48, Mt. Shasta 84/49, Yreka 88/51, Alturas 85/43

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A cutoff low pressure area has formed off the coast and is currently stationary (see satellite picture below).   This low will slowly move northward Thursday and Friday.   The main effect this low will have on Northern California is to cool temperatures to a few degrees below normal today through Friday.   We will see a few clouds from the system as it lifts northward late Thursday and Friday and there could be isolated thunderstorms over the mountains north and east of the valley.  Gusty south winds will occur this afternoon and Thursday and Friday afternoons.  

Saturday the large high pressure area that is over the U.S. will build back to the west and cover the entire U.S. (see map below).  This will bring a return of hot weather to the north state.  Saturday through at least the mid part of next week the inland areas of the north state will be sunny with above normal temperatures. 

The Old Forecaster

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