Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Weather Discussion for Wednesday January 18, 2017

***WET AND WINDY***

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 16-Jan 25 (high/low)...Redding 56/37, Chico 55/36, Quincy 46/23, Chester 43/21, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 55/33, Weaverville 49/28, Mt. Shasta 45/26, Yreka 45/24, Alturas 43/17

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The first in a series of frontal systems is now moving into the area.  Rain, heavy at times, today with snow levels 3000 to 4000 feet north and 4000 to 5000 feet south (Tahoe).  Gusty south winds will occur today.   The precipitation turns to showers tonight.  Thursday the north state will have showers mainly over the higher elevations.  Snow levels will be 3000 to 4000 feet.

Thursday night and Friday the next system moves through with more rain and wind.  Snow levels will be 3000 to 4000 feet.  Saturday skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy with showers over the higher elevations, with a chance of one moving over the valley.   Snow levels will continue 3000 to 4000 feet.

Sunday the last storm in the series will move through, with more heavy rain and wind. (see map below).   Snow levels will be 2500 to 3500 feet.   The precipitation will turn to showers Sunday night and end Monday.   High pressure will bring clearing and drying Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ahead of each of these storms south winds will gust 45 to 55 mph in the north valley and 55 to 65 mph over the higher elevations.

Precipitation amounts for the period today through Monday night will be 5 to 10 inches over the higher elevations.  Note amounts will be lighter east of the Sierra Cascade Crest.   The valley see 1 to 3 inches with 3 to 5 inches in the Redding and Shasta Lake area.  

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, January 16, 2017

Weather Discussion for Monday January 16, 2017

***MORE WET WEATHER ON THE WAY***

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 16-Jan 25 (high/low)...Redding 56/37, Chico 55/36, Quincy 46/23, Chester 43/21, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 55/33, Weaverville 49/28, Mt. Shasta 45/26, Yreka 45/24, Alturas 43/17

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A weak high pressure ridge continue off the coast.  Today we will see sunny skies with above normal temperatures and light winds.   The ridge begins to breakdown Tuesday and Wednesday through early next week we will be under a weather pattern like the one shown below.   A strong jetstream will run across the Pacific and over California.  Low pressure troughs and frontal systems will move through the area Wednesday, late Thursday and Friday and Sunday and Monday.   Each of these will bring precipitation to the area....heavy rain/snow with the late Thursday/Friday system.   Thursday and Saturday we will be between systems, but still will see scattered showers.  Snow levels with the first 2 storms will be 3500 to 4500 feet and 3000 to 4000 feet with the Sunday/Monday storm.  Strong gusty south winds will precede each system. 

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, January 14, 2017

Weather Discussion for Saturday January 14, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 9-Jan 16 (high/low)...Redding 55/35, Chico 54/36, Quincy 46/23, Chester 42/21, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 55/33, Weaverville 46/28, Mt. Shasta 44/25, Yreka 44/24, Alturas 41/17

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Mostly sunny today with temperatures a few degrees above normal.  The low pressure area and frontal system that is shown off the coast on this morning's satellite picture (below), will split apart and weaken as it moves eastward.   This system will bring a few clouds to the area tomorrow with a few light showers possible over the coast range.  Monday sunny skies return to slightly above normal temperatures and gusty north winds.  

The weak high pressure ridge that has been along the coast breaks down Tuesday.   Wednesday through Saturday we will be under a weather pattern like the one shown on the map below.  The jetstream will run across the Pacific and right over California.  A low pressure trough and frontal system will move through the area Wednesday with rain and gusty south winds.   Snow levels start out high but will drop to 4000 to 5000 feet by Wednesday afternoon.   The precipitation turns to showers Thursday but then a another storm system moves through late Thursday and Friday with moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty south winds.  Snow levels will be 3000 to 4000 feet.  This system will be east of our area by Saturday and we will see partly cloudy skies with a few showers. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Weather Discussion for Wednesday January 11, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 9-Jan 16 (high/low)...Redding 55/35, Chico 54/36, Quincy 46/23, Chester 42/21, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 55/33, Weaverville 46/28, Mt. Shasta 44/25, Yreka 44/24, Alturas 41/17

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The low pressure area that is currently along the Pacific Northwest coast (see satellite picture below) is dropping southward.  This system will bring showers to Northern California today and tonight.   Snow levels will be around 3000 feet.   There will still be a few lingering showers over the Sierras Thursday morning, but they will ending by midday and overall Thursday will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.   

Friday through Monday there will be a weak high pressure ridge along the coast with the jetstream to our north. (see map below).  Friday will be mostly sunny with a few clouds on the weekend from frontal systems moving by to our north.  

The high pressure ridge will breakdown next week and this will allow low pressure troughs and frontal systems to move through our area.   It looks like the wet weather will return Tuesday.

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, January 9, 2017

Weather Discussion for Monday Discussion for Monday January 9, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 9-Jan 16 (high/low)...Redding 55/35, Chico 54/36, Quincy 46/23, Chester 42/21, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 55/33, Weaverville 46/28, Mt. Shasta 44/25, Yreka 44/24, Alturas 41/17

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Today Northern California will see periods of rain or showers, with snow levels 3000 to 3500 feet north and 4000 to 5000 feet south.  Tuesday a stronger low pressure trough and frontal system will move into our area. (see map below).  This storm will bring heavy precipitation and gusty south winds to the north state,  Snow levels will be near 5000 feet north and 6000 feet south.  Southerly winds will gust to 40 to 45 mph in the valley and 55 mph over the higher elevations.  Showers Wednesday snow levels around 3000 feet.

A weak high pressure ridge will be over the area Thursday and we will have partly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  Friday a frontal system will bring some clouds to the area with showers over the areas north of Redding.  It looks like another frontal system will bring rain to the whole area Saturday night and Sunday. 

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, January 7, 2017

Weather Discussion for Saturday January 7, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 2-Jan 9 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 52/34, Quincy 44/22, Chester 40/19, Susanville 38/19, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/27, Mt. Shasta 42/25, Yreka 43/24, Alturas 40/14

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The picture below is the view from my front door this morning.

The first in a series of frontal systems is now moving across Northern California.  Trapped cold is air is causing snow levels to drop to around 500 feet from Redding northward.  The heaviest precipitation will move through the area by early afternoon with lighter precipitation continuing through the night.  The big question is when will the cold air mix out or breakup?   At this time I expect to see the snow levels begin to rise this afternoon and should be 3500 to 4500 feet tonight.

A strong...wet...and warmer storm will move through Sunday.   This system will bring heavy rain and wind to the north state.   Snow levels will be 6000 feet north and 7500 feet south.  This means a lot of today's snow will be washed off and streams will be rising.   The storm will be moving out Monday and the precipitation will turn to showers. Snow levels Monday will be 4000 to 5000 feet.  

There will be brief break late Monday and early Tuesday and then another frontal system will spread precipitation over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by another one Thursday night and Friday.  Snow levels with these systems will be around 4000 feet. 

The Old Forecaster

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Friday, January 6, 2017

Updated Weather Discussion for Friday January 6, 2017

 Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 2-Jan 9 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 52/34, Quincy 44/22, Chester 40/19, Susanville 38/19, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/27, Mt. Shasta 42/25, Yreka 43/24, Alturas 40/14

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

I will issue a more complete discussion tomorrow morning.

Here is tonights update...The current satellite picture (below) shows a low pressure area approaching the coast from the southwest.  A very cold airmass remains over Northern California.   Therefore, when the two collide we will be dealing....at least for 6 to 12 hours...with areas of trapped cold air from Redding northward.  Precipitation will start across Northern California after midnight and continue through Saturday.   On Sunday the main low pressure area will move across the state with moderate to heavy precipitation.  Snow levels from Redding northward will start out at 500 to 1000 feet.  Snow levels will be rising Saturday afternoon and by Sunday will be over 6000 feet.

The precipitation will turn to showers Monday and end Monday night and then another system will move into the area late Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Weather Discussion update Friday January 6, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 2-Jan 9 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 52/34, Quincy 44/22, Chester 40/19, Susanville 38/19, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/27, Mt. Shasta 42/25, Yreka 43/24, Alturas 40/14

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Quick update this morning...The discussion below still pretty good on timing and the fact that we are entering a very wet patten.   The fly in ointment is once again "trapped cold air".  It now looks like the precipitation for the first system will start sometime after midnight.  Snow levels from Redding north will start out at 500 to 1000 feet and there could be several inches of snow down to that level before the cold air is broken up.   Snow levels still expected to rise to 5000 to 6000 feet Saturday night.  I will update this blog late this afternoon or this evening.

The low pressure area and frontal system are slowly moving east.  Today the north state will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with showers, mainly over the higher elevations.   Snow levels will be 1500 to 2500 feet north and 3000 to 3500 feet south.  The showers will end by evening and skies will be clearing.  Thursday and most of Friday Northern California will be partly to mostly clear with light to moderate north winds.   

Clouds will begin increasing late Friday as a low pressure trough develops off the coast.  This trough will be along the coast Saturday and Sunday (see map below), during this time the north state will see periods of moderate to heavy precipitation with snow levels rising to 5000 to 6000 feet by Saturday afternoon. night.  Gusty south winds will occur Saturday and early Sunday.  

Monday we will see a brief break as the low moves east.   However, by Tuesday another low pressure trough will be along the coast and this system will bring more rain to our area Tuesday and Wednesday.  Snow levels will be 3500 to 4500 feet.

The 7 to 10 day forecast models continue a wet pattern for Northern California with more low pressure troughs expected to move through. 

The Old Forecaster

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Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Weather Discussion for Tuesday January 3, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 2-Jan 9 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 52/34, Quincy 44/22, Chester 40/19, Susanville 38/19, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/27, Mt. Shasta 42/25, Yreka 43/24, Alturas 40/14

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

This morning's satellite picture (below) shows the low pressure area off the coast merging with the warmer moister air from the west.  The boundary between the airmasses is a little further north than was forecast yesterday and this has modified the cold air in the north end of the state.  Northern California will see locally heavy precipitation later today and tonight with snow levels 1000 to 1500 feet from Redding northward and 2000 to 3000 feet south of Redding.  Snow levels will rise later tonight to 3500 to 4500 feet.  The low will be east of our area by late Wednesday.  The precipitation will turn to showers Wednesday and end Wednesday night.  Snow levels Wednesday will be 3000 to 4000 feet. 

Thursday and Friday the north state will be partly to mostly sunny, with near normal temperatures.  

A large low pressure trough will be off the coast by Saturday and this will send a series of frontal systems across our area. (see map below).   Wet weather starts Saturday afternoon and continues at least through mid week.  Snow levels will start out 5000 to 6000 feet but lower by Monday or Tuesday.  

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, January 2, 2017

Weather Discussion for Monday January 2, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 2-Jan 9 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 52/34, Quincy 44/22, Chester 40/19, Susanville 38/19, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/27, Mt. Shasta 42/25, Yreka 43/24, Alturas 40/14

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Because of the incoming storms I will update this blog daily at least through midweek. 

Very complex and interesting weather pattern continues to develop.  A cold low pressure area is now along the Southern Oregon/Northern California coast.  This has pushed a very cold airmass over the north state but there isn't a lot of moisture associated with it.  However, starting late today the low will move back to the west and this will allow it to merge with the warmer moister low pressure area that is out in the Pacific.  The warmer moister air will collide with the colder airmass over Northern California late tonight and Tuesday.   The low will then move eastward across our area on Wednesday. (see map below)

Not trying to make excuses but this is the type of pattern where a few miles difference in the boundary between the cold and warm air means the difference between heavy rain or heavy snow in areas like Redding and the I-5 corridor to the north.

Today the north state will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with snow showers over the foothills and mountains.  They will be a little more widespread than yesterday.  There is a chance of light shower in the valley.  Snow levels in the Redding area will be near 1000 feet.  The precipitation will increase across Northern California late tonight and Tuesday.  Cold air will be trapped in the north and snow levels from Redding northward will be 500 to 1000 feet.  South of Redding the snow levels will be 1500 to 2500 feet.  Snow levels will rise Tuesday night to 4000 to 5000 feet.  Gusty south winds will precede this storm.   Wednesday the precipitation will turn to showers in the afternoon and end by evening.  Snow levels will remain near 5000 feet.

Thursday and Friday will be partly cloudy to partly sunny and then another strong low pressure area moves through on the weekend. 

The Old Forecaster

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Sunday, January 1, 2017

Weather Discussion for Sunday January 1, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 26-Jan 2 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 53/35, Quincy 44/23, Chester 40/20, Susanville 40/21, Grass Valley 51/31, Weaverville 45/29, Mt. Shasta 41/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 41/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Because of the incoming storms I will update this blog daily at least through midweek. 

Over the next several days we will shift from being in a cold relatively dry weather pattern to a warmer and wetter pattern.  This morning's satellite picture (below) shows the cold low pressure area sliding southward along the Pacific Northwest coast.  Further out in the Pacific you can see a series of low pressure areas and lots of clouds.   These systems and moisture are begin blocked from moving east by a high pressure ridge. The low pressure area will continue moving southward until it gets along the Northern California coast Monday afternoon.  It will then shift back to the west, which will weaken the high pressure ridge and allow the warmer moister airmass to mix into the the cold air associated with the low. (see map below). The timing of all this makes the forecast interesting...but here is how I think it will happen.

Today through midday Monday we will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with snow flurries over the foothills and mountains.  The showers today will mainly from Redding northward but will spread down the Sierras tonight. The only area of the Sacramento Valley that will see showers today and early Monday is the area north of Red Bluff.  Snow levels today will be around 1000 feet but drop to 500 feet tonight.  Snow levels Monday will be 500 to 1000 feet north and 1500 to 2000 feet south.

Monday night and Tuesday the first surge of warmer moister air from the west reaches the coast.  This will make the precipitation more widespread and heavier, and will cause the snow levels to rise.   However, there will be a large area of cold air trapped over the north end of the state and until this is broken up or scoured our snow levels will remain low.  The snow levels south of Redding will rise to 5000 feet by Tuesday afternoon.  The area from Redding northward will continue to see snow levels 500 to 1000 feet until Tuesday afternoon or evening when they will rise to 3500 to 4000 feet.

Wednesday through the weekend a series of frontal systems will move across the north state every 24 to 36 hours.   These systems will bring more rain with snow levels around 5000 feet.   

The Old Forecaster

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