Saturday, February 4, 2017

Weather Discussion for Saturday February 4, 2017

Normal high and low temperatures for Jan 30-Feb 6 (high/low)...Redding 60/37, Chico 59/38, Quincy 49/24, Chester 45/21, Susanville 43/22, Grass Valley 56/33, Weaverville 53/30, Mt. Shasta 48/27, Yreka 48/25, Alturas 44/19

This blog will be issued every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A large low pressure area is off the Canadian Coast (see satellite picture below).  This system will send another frontal system across the north state today with more rain and gusty south winds.  Snow levels will be 5000 to 6000 feet north and a little higher to the south.  The precipitation will turn to showers tonight and decrease.  Sunday will start off partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated showers over the higher elevations.   However,  the low pressure area off the Canadian coast will act like a "pitching machine" and pickup the low pressure area shown on this morning's satellite picture in the Central Pacific (see black arrow) and shoot it eastward.   The low will move through Northern California Sunday night and Monday with more moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty south winds.  Snow levels will be 6000 feet or higher Sunday but will drop to 4000 to 5000 feet on Monday.   The precipitation will turn to showers and decrease Monday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday the large low pressure area that is currently off the Canadian coast will reform back to the west (see map below).  This will sag the jetstream southward in the Central Pacific and then run northeastward into Northern California.   This weather pattern taps sub tropical moisture and results in warm...wet...storms hitting the north state.   Tuesday through Thursday look for periods of rain...heavy at times...snow levels will be over 7000 feet.  Gusty south to southwest winds are expected.   The precipitation will turn to showers Friday and snow levels will drop to 3500 to 4500 feet.  

Saturday high pressure will begin to rebuild along the coast and we will see clearing and drying.   

The Old Forecaster

Click on images below to enlarge them..




5 comments:

  1. I am genuinely looking forward to the drying and warming part. We have had well over 80 inches according to the Pit 3 RAWS. My measuring devices are buried, which in meteorological vernacular means "enough".

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  2. Sorry, slight edit here. Pit 5 is over 91 inches, Miranda on the coast is over 97 inches. OF, sincere question here that Messuer Swain punted on when I asked---From a meteorological standpoint, has there been anything learned or revealed by this year's event? As you know, all the tea leaves were indicating the return of massive ridging. The usual suspects were marched out to justify this prediction last September/October (SSTs, Western PAC Highs, various oscillations etc.). When a lab experiment does not go as predicted it is a learning opportunity, what have we learned? Or is it too early to say?

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  3. I have not seen any papers. But one thing I have noticed is that out in the Pacific, north of 25 deg lat. there has been an area of above normal temps with cooler water to the north. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnw.gif I wonder if this isn't helping enhance the Pacific jetstream and which breaks down the west coast ridge. Models have consistently all winter over forecast the ridge in days 5+. This my observation....and hopefully someone will provide more data to prove or disprove it.

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  4. sorry for ur gauges but u may have to dig them out or add new ones,my coffee ground reading says we are only half way through ,cold and wet way into spring and lots of snow in he late part of spring, Lake Mead pass the 1100 ft mark and all south cal reservour above hystorical average...for some Reason Swain has not read the Palmer drought index, which has called the cal drought off...he still hopes to find some data that dramamtize the situation...by the way he followed the crowd at the beginning of the season stating this a la nina year and more drough for ca...if i were u i would by new gauges...rain and snow into late spring...read W.Reich...

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    1. Thanks. Everyone are so shell shocked from drought that none of the gurus can come out and say that we are in a very wet pattern and there is no indication that it is going to abate. We keep waiting for "The Ridge" to verify and it just isn't happening. Great news about Mead. I Had not heard anything and it's hugely important.

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