Saturday, December 31, 2016

Weather Discussion for Saturday December 31, 2016

***COLD WITH VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY***

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 26-Jan 2 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 53/35, Quincy 44/23, Chester 40/20, Susanville 40/21, Grass Valley 51/31, Weaverville 45/29, Mt. Shasta 41/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 41/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Because of the incoming storms I will update this blog daily at least through midweek. 

A relatively dry but cold low pressure area moved through the area last night and can be seen on this morning's satellite picture (below) just off the Central California coast.  Sunny skies today with cold temperatures tonight in the wind sheltered areas. 

Sunday the next cold low pressure area drops southward along the Canadian Coast.  This system will "hook" or move back to the west as it reaches the Northern California Coast.  This will allow it to pickup more moisture.  Clouds will increase Sunday afternoon with light precipitation starting late Sunday afternoon.  Snow levels will be 500 feet in the north and 1500 feet in the south (Butte co.)

After Sunday all of the forecast models have changed.   Instead of the low moving through it now remains off the Northern California Coast.   Out to the west in the Pacific the jetstream splits and the southern branch picks up moisture from the large low pressure area shown on this morning's satellite picture in the Central Pacific.  This develops a weather pattern not seen too often in our area. (see map below). The low pressure area keeps the cold air over our area and southern branch of the jetstream pushes moisture into it.  

Monday we will see light snow or snow showers with snow levels continuing near 500 feet north and 1500 feet south.  Monday night and Tuesday the first surge of moisture from the west hits.    I think due to the cold air being trapped in the north valley the snow levels will continue near 500 feet from Redding northward.  Snow levels will rise to 2000 to 3000 feet to the south.   Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected.   

More moderate to heavy precipitation is expected Wednesday.   Snow levels will rise in the north to 1500 to 2000 feet.   Skies will clearing Thursday with a warmer storm due in on the weekend.

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Weather Discussion for Wednesday December 28, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 26-Jan 2 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 53/35, Quincy 44/23, Chester 40/20, Susanville 40/21, Grass Valley 51/31, Weaverville 45/29, Mt. Shasta 41/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 41/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Today and Thursday Northern California will see partly to mostly clear skies with near normal daytime temperatures and not as cold nights.  Light to moderate north winds will occur through Thursday afternoon.

The high pressure ridge off the coast is beginning to build northward and this will result in a weather pattern similar to the one shown on the map below.  The jetstream will move over the top of the ridge and then drop southward along the Canadian coast and then turn eastward across Northern California.   Low pressure troughs riding along this jetstream can't pickup much moisture but will bring cold air southward.  The first low pressure trough will move through the area Friday afternoon and Saturday.   This system will bring a few clouds with snow flurries over the higher elevations north and east of the valley.   Gusty southwest to northwest winds will occur late Friday and Saturday.

Sunday afternoon and Monday the next system will move through.   The map below shows that this system is forecast to "hook" a little further west before it moves inland.   This will allow it to pickup a little more moisture.   Sunday night and Monday we will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with showers over the foothills and mountains and a chance of showers in the valley north of Chico.  Not a lot of precipitation with this system but snow levels will be 1000 to 1500 feet.   The showers will end Monday evening and skies will be clearing.

Tuesday and Wednesday look sunny with gusty north winds and cold temperatures.  

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, December 26, 2016

Weather Discussion for Monday December 26, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 26-Jan 2 (high/low)...Redding 52/35, Chico 53/35, Quincy 44/23, Chester 40/20, Susanville 40/21, Grass Valley 51/31, Weaverville 45/29, Mt. Shasta 41/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 41/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Sunny today and then another cold night tonight with temperatures about like last night.   Tuesday a frontal system will brush the north end of the state with a few clouds.  There will be scattered light showers north of Redding with snow levels 1500 to 2000 feet.

Wednesday the high pressure ridge will be just off he coast and will be building northward.   This will bring the jetsream southward along the Canadian coast and then across Northern California.  Wednesday and Thursday we will see mostly sunny skies with light to moderate north winds.  

Friday a low pressure trough will drop across Northern California (see map below).  Since this system is so close to the coast it will not have much moisture with it...but will be cold.   Friday will be partly cloudy with snow flurries over the foothills and mountains.  Snow levels will be 1500 to 2500 feet.

There will be a break Saturday and then another cold low pressure trough will move through late Sunday and Monday.  Once again most of the precipitation will be over the foothills and mountains but there could be a few showers in the valley.   Snow levels will be low...1000 to 2000 feet. 

The Old Forecaster

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Friday, December 23, 2016

Weather Discussion for Friday December 23, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 19-Dec 26 (high/low)...Redding 54/35, Chico 53/34, Quincy 44/24, Chester 41/20, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/29 Mt. Shasta 43/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 42/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A cold low pressure trough is now along the coast and will move across the area today and tonight.   The precipitation will turn to showers later today and taper off tonight.   Snow levels will be 2000 to 2500 feet.  Gusty south winds will occur through the afternoon.   Saturday there will be a few snow flurries over the higher elevations, with partly sunny skies in the valley.

Sunday and Monday we will have sunny skies.  Nighttime temperatures will be cold in the wind sheltered valleys.  The north valley will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  Tuesday a frontal system will move through the Pacific Northwest (see map below) with the southern end brushing the north state.  We will see some clouds with showers from Redding northward.  

Wednesday through Friday high pressure will be along the coast.  Skies will be mostly clear with slightly  above normal temperatures. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Weather Discussion for Wednesday December 21, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 19-Dec 26 (high/low)...Redding 54/35, Chico 53/34, Quincy 44/24, Chester 41/20, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/29 Mt. Shasta 43/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 42/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

With the winter storm coming in this blog will be update Friday morning.

High pressure is back along the coast and Northern California is mostly sunny today with light to moderate north winds.  The high will begin breaking down Thursday and Friday a cold low pressure trough will be along the coast.  (see Map 1 below).   Clouds will increase Thursday and precipitation will move into the area Thursday night with moderate to heavy precipitation Friday.   Snow levels Thursday night and early Friday will be 3000 feet north and 5000 feet south.  However, due to trapped cold air they will be 1000 to 1500 feet in the canyons and valleys north of Redding.  Snow levels will drop by Friday afternoon to 1500 to 2500 feet.  Gusty south winds will occur Thursday night and Friday.   The precipitation will turn to showers Friday night and end by Saturday afternoon. 

Sunday we will see partly cloudy to partly sunny skies with cool temperatures.  Late Sunday and Monday a low pressure area will approach the coast. (see Map 2 below).   However, since this low is closed off from the main jetstream forecasting its track this far in advance it harder.   One model takes it into the southern end of the state and another takes it across San Francisco.  Sunday night and Monday we will see cloudy skies with light showers from Redding southward.   Another frontal system is expected to bring rain to area Tuesday with snow levels 3500 to 4000 feet. 

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, December 19, 2016

Weather Discussion for Monday December 19, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 19-Dec 26 (high/low)...Redding 54/35, Chico 53/34, Quincy 44/24, Chester 41/20, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 52/31, Weaverville 45/29 Mt. Shasta 43/24, Yreka 43/25, Alturas 42/16

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

This morning's satellite picture shows that the high pressure ridge that has been off the coast is beginning to weaken.   Today the north end of the state will see mid and high clouds from a frontal system moving by to the north.   Not as cold tonight due to high cloudiness and a warmer airmass.  Tuesday a weak frontal system will move through the area.   Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy with showers over the coastal and northern mountains.  Snow levels will be 3000 to 4000 feet but locally lower in canyons where cold air is trapped.

Wednesday we will be back to mostly sunny skies with light to moderate north winds.   Clouds begin to increase Thursday as a low pressure trough approaches the coast.  (see map below).   This system will deepen or strengthen off the coast Thursday night and Friday.  All of Northern California will see rain Thursday night and Friday with snow levels 2500 to 3500 feet north and 4000 to 5000 feet south (Nevada county).  The precipitation turns to showers Saturday ending by late afternoon.

It looks like a closed low pressure area will develop off the coast Sunday or Monday.  The models are really divergent on the position and timing of this system.   At this time I would expect precipitation late Sunday and Monday.

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, December 17, 2016

Weather Discussion for Saturday December 18, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 12-Dec 19 (high/low)...Redding 54/36, Chico 54/36, Quincy 45/24, Chester 41/20, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 53/31, Weaverville 46/29 Mt. Shasta 43/25, Yreka 44/25, Alturas 43/18

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

High pressure is along the coast and will hold through Monday.  Northern California will see mostly sunny skies.  This has pushed a cool  and dry airmass over Northern California and while daytime temperatures will be near normal, wind sheltered valleys will continue to have cold nights.  Wind sheltered areas in the north valley will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Tuesday a weak frontal system will move across the area with light precipitation over the foothills and mountains with sprinkles or light showers in the north end of the valley.  Snow levels will be 3000 feet north and 5000 feet south.  A slightly stronger system will move through late Wednesday and Thursday. (see map below)  This system will bring light rain or showers to Northern California.  Snow levels will be 3000 feet north and 4500 feet south.  

Friday and Saturday the north state will be partly to mostly sunny with gusty north winds in some areas.  The next frontal system looks like it will hit the area late Sunday or Monday. 

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Weather Discussion for Wednesday December 14, 2016

***WINDY AND WET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY***


Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 12-Dec 19 (high/low)...Redding 54/36, Chico 54/36, Quincy 45/24, Chester 41/20, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 53/31, Weaverville 46/29 Mt. Shasta 43/25, Yreka 44/25, Alturas 43/18

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The first surge of precipitation moved through the area last night.  This morning's satellite picture (below) shows another couple of systems along and just off the coast.   You can see the large amount of moisture being pulled northward into these systems.  Currently moderate to heavy rain is occurring along the north coasts and northwestern California.  The heavy precipitation will move slowly across Northern California today with heavy rain and gusty south winds tonight and through Thursday evening.  Snow levels will be 6000 feet or higher.  Southerly winds will gust to 50 to 55 mph in the north end of the valley and foothills and 65 mph over the higher elevations.

The precipitation will turn to showers Thursday night.  Snow levels Thursday night will drop to 2500 to 3500 feet.  Friday there will be a few showers over the foothills and higher elevations with snow levels 2000 to 3000 feet.

Saturday through early next week high pressure will be along the coast.   The north state will see mostly sunny skies.   There will be gusty north winds but the wind sheltered valleys will see cold temperatures.  It now looks like the high will break down around next Wednesday and another frontal system will move through the area. 

The Old Forecaster

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Monday, December 12, 2016

Weather Discussion for Monday December 12, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 12-Dec 19 (high/low)...Redding 54/36, Chico 54/36, Quincy 45/24, Chester 41/20, Susanville 41/21, Grass Valley 53/31, Weaverville 46/29 Mt. Shasta 43/25, Yreka 44/25, Alturas 43/18

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Sunny today with a few high clouds and light winds.   Things will start getting interesting Tuesday.   This morning's satellite picture (below) shows a low pressure area to the west over the Pacific and one to the north in the Gulf of Alaska.  The Pacific low will move eastward and the Gulf of Alaska low will move southeastward.   The two will merge off the California coast late Tuesday through Thursday.  The models are not in agreement on the timing of this event.  At this time it looks like light rain moving into the Bay Area Tuesday and spreading slowly northward during the day reaching the Oregon border by evening.  The precipitation will continue through Wednesday.  Snow levels will start out 3000 feet north and 4000 feet south, but rise to 5000 to 6000 feet by Wednesday.  

Wednesday night and Thursday the main low pressure area will move through (see map below).  This system will bring heavier precipitation to all of Northern California with snow levels lowering back to 2500 to 3500 feet by Thursday.  Gusty south winds will occur in some areas Wednesday and Thursday.  The low will be east of our area Friday.  There will a few mountains snow flurries Friday morning but they will end by afternoon.  Friday night will be cold in the wind sheltered valleys.  Saturday and Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny.   Night time temperatures will continue cold.

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, December 10, 2016

Weather Discussion for Saturday December 10, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 5-Dec 12 (high/low)...Redding 56/36, Chico 57/36, Quincy 47/26, Chester 43/22, Susanville 44/23, Grass Valley 54/33, Weaverville 47/29 Mt. Shasta 45/27, Yreka 46/26, Alturas 45/19
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This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A frontal system is now just south of Redding and moving southward.   Along the frontal system is moderate to heavy precipitation with light showers north of it.  The front will continue south and by this evening the precipitation will have ended.   Snow levels are 6000 feet or higher.  

Sunday and Monday the north state will be mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds.  Temperatures will be normal or slightly above.  

Late Monday the large scale weather pattern begins to to change from one where the weather systems are moving from west to east to one where they are moving from north to south.  A couple of weak frontal systems will bring light precipitation to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.  Snow levels Tuesday will be 3500 to 4500 feet and then a little higher on Wednesday.  Thursday a colder low pressure trough will drop through from the north (see map below).  This system will bring light precipitation or showers to the area.  Precipitation amounts will be light but snow levels will drop to 2000 to 3000 feet by Thursday afternoon.

Friday the high pressure ridge will move closer to the coast and this will place us under a strong northerly flow pattern.   Friday through the weekend look for clear skies with gusty north winds and colder nights.  

The Old Forecaster

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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Weather Discussion for Thursday December 8, 2016


Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 5-Dec 12 (high/low)...Redding 56/36, Chico 57/36, Quincy 47/26, Chester 43/22, Susanville 44/23, Grass Valley 54/33, Weaverville 47/29 Mt. Shasta 45/27, Yreka 46/26, Alturas 45/19

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Enjoyed watching the snow last night.  The cold airmass is beginning to modify and snow levels are rising.   The low pressure area in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to send moisture across Northern California.  Today and Friday the north state will see periods of light precipitation.   Snow levels will rise to 4000 to 5000 feet north and over 6000 feet south (Tahoe area) today.   A stronger low pressure area will bring rain to the area Saturday and early Sunday with snow levels 5000 to 6000 feet. 

The large scale weather pattern next week will be like the one shown on the map below.  Northern California will have the northern branch of the jetstream just to it's north and the weaker south branch to the south.  Monday through Wednesday should be partly cloudy to partly sunny with normal temperatures.   It now looks like a stronger storm will move through the southern branch and bring rain to our area Wednesday and Thursday.

The Old Forecaster

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Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Weather Discussion for Wednesday December 8, 2016

6:30 PM UPDATE 

***LOW SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT***

Normal high and low temperatures for Dec 5-Dec 12 (high/low)...Redding 56/36, Chico 57/36, Quincy 47/26, Chester 43/22, Susanville 44/23, Grass Valley 54/33, Weaverville 47/29 Mt. Shasta 45/27, Yreka 46/26, Alturas 45/19

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

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The cold trapped air continues in the Northern California valleys.  At 6:00 pm it is now snowing in west Redding at the 700 foot elevation and CalTrans traffic cams show snow sticking to the roads above 2000 feet.  Snow will continue tonight with snow levels 500 to 700 feet.  West and north Redding could see 2 inches of snow tonight with heavier amounts in Shasta Lake City and the Shasta Lake area.  Snow levels to the south (Butte County) will be 1500 to 2000 feet.  Snow levels will rise tomorrow to around 4000 feet by midday.   The rest of the discussion below still looks good with showers Thursday afternoon and Friday...and then another system Sunday.
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A cold is now over Northern California and a frontal system is approaching the coast.   Precipitation will move into the area this afternoon and continue through Thursday.   It will take a while for the cold air to scour or mix out, so snow levels will start out very low...500 to 700 feet from the Redding area northward and 1500 to 2500 feet to the south in the Butte County area.  Snow levels will rise to 5000 to 6000 feet by Thursday afternoon.   The precipitation will turn to showers late Thursday and continue through Friday.  

There will be a brief break Saturday.   Sunday through the mid part of next week we will be under a weather pattern like the one shown on the map below.   A branch of the jetstream will be over Northern California and this will push a series of frontal systems over the north state.  The first will move across the area Sunday with light precipitation.  Snow levels will be 3500 to 4500 feet.  Monday will be showery with a stronger storm system Tuesday and Wednesday.


The Old Forecaster

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