Monday, October 31, 2016

Weather Discussion for Monday October 31, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 31-Nov 7 (high/low)...Redding 69/44, Chico 71/42, Quincy 61/29, Chester 57/29, Susanville 57/30, Grass Valley 65/39, Weaverville 63/32, Mt. Shasta 55/32, Yreka 58/31, Alturas 58/24

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The last in this series of storms or frontal systems is now approaching the coast (see satellite picture below).  This system will spread rain over Northern California later today and tonight.  Snow levels will be 5000 to 6000 feet and gusty south winds are expected this afternoon.  The showers will be ending Tuesday morning as the low drops southward over Nevada.

Wednesday through the weekend we will be under a weather pattern like the one shown below.   High pressure will be slowly building over the central U.S.   A strong jetstream will continue across the Pacific but will be deflected just to our north as it enters the U.S.  Frontal systems will move by just to our north Wednesday night and late Saturday.   These systems will bring a few clouds to the north state with showers along the north coast and over the areas north of Redding.   The rest of the time we will see partly sunny skies and normal temperatures. 

The Old Forecaster

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Saturday, October 29, 2016

Weather Discussion for Saturday October 29, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 24-Oct 31 (high/low)...Redding 72/47, Chico 74/44, Quincy 63/30, Chester 61/30, Susanville 61/32, Grass Valley 66/40, Weaverville 67/33, Mt. Shasta 59/33, Yreka 62/33, Alturas 61/26

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

More rain....Today Northern California will have showers with high snow levels.  The large low pressure area shown on this morning's satellite picture (below) is moving eastward and will move across the north state tonight and Sunday.   This system will bring moderate to heavy rain and strong gusty south winds to Northern California.  Snow levels will drop to 5000 to 6000 feet Sunday afternoon.   The precipitation will taper off Sunday night.
It still looks like a weaker frontal system will move across our area Monday afternoon and early Tuesday with light rain.  

Wednesday through the weekend high pressure will begin to build over the western half of the U.S. (see map below).   A strong jetstream will still be running across the Pacific but the high will push it northward into the Pacific Northwest as it reaches the coast.  Wednesday through the weekend we should see partly sunny to partly cloudy skies with slowly warming temperatures. 

The Old Forecaster

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Friday, October 28, 2016

Weather Discussion for Friday October 28, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 24-Oct 31 (high/low)...Redding 72/47, Chico 74/44, Quincy 63/30, Chester 61/30, Susanville 61/32, Grass Valley 66/40, Weaverville 67/33, Mt. Shasta 59/33, Yreka 62/33, Alturas 61/26

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The frontal system than moved slowly through the north state yesterday is now over Central California.  Today the areas south of a line from Ukiah to Susanville will have rain with the chance of a few light showers north of that line.   Tonight through Saturday afternoon Northern California will have periods of light rain or showers with high snow levels.  

Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening the next storm system moves through with more moderate to heavy rain and gusty south winds.  Snow levels will drop to around 6000 feet by Sunday afternoon and evening.  Sunday night and early Monday look partly cloudy to cloudy with a chance showers mainly over the higher elevations.  

Unfortunately....for the "Trick or Treaters"...the next frontal system will reach the coast Monday afternoon (see map below).  This will be a weaker system but will bring light rain to all Northern California Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  Snow levels will be near 6000 feet.    

Tuesday afternoon and most of Wednesday we will have a break with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  It looks like a weak frontal system will move through Wednesday and Thursday with scattered light showers.   Longer range models indicated a weak high pressure ridge over the western U.S. by next weekend. 

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Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Weather Discussion for Wednesday October 26, 2016


***WET NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS***

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 24-Oct 31 (high/low)...Redding 72/47, Chico 74/44, Quincy 63/30, Chester 61/30, Susanville 61/32, Grass Valley 66/40, Weaverville 67/33, Mt. Shasta 59/33, Yreka 62/33, Alturas 61/26

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A few days ago we had a storm with moisture from an old Typhoon, tomorrow and Friday we will get hit with a storm with moisture from Hurricane Seymour, that is now off Baja.  The next week to 10 days look very wet...the timing of the systems will be the problem. 

This morning's satellite picture (below) shows a large scale low pressure trough off the coast.  This trough will generate frontal systems and eject them toward the coast.  Note that the trough extends quite a bit southward and this will allow to tap some moisture from Seymour.

The picture also shows a frontal system lying along the coast.  This system will remain stationary through tonight.  Today there will be rain and showers along the coast and coastal mountains and over Trinity, Siskiyou, and the higher elevations of Shasta counties.   The rest of the north state will be partly to mostly cloudy with the chance of a sprinkle or light shower.  

The short version of the forecast is a storm or frontal system will move through Thursday and Friday, with another late Saturday and Sunday and then another late Monday and Tuesday.   Beyond that it looks like another system late Wednesday and Thursday.  The time between systems the north state will be partly cloudy to cloudy with showers.  Gusty south winds will precede each storm. 

The Thursday and Friday system will have the tropical moisture and should bring moderate to heavy rain to Northern California.   The late Saturday and Sunday system also looks very wet.   The systems next week look weaker.  Snow levels will drop down to 5000 to 6000 feet by Sunday afternoon and Monday.  

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Monday, October 24, 2016

Weather Discussion for Monday October 24, 2016

***WINDY THIS AFTERNOON***
***WET NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS***

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 24-Oct 31 (high/low)...Redding 72/47, Chico 74/44, Quincy 63/30, Chester 61/30, Susanville 61/32, Grass Valley 66/40, Weaverville 67/33, Mt. Shasta 59/33, Yreka 62/33, Alturas 61/26

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

A large scale low pressure trough is off the coast and will remain there for there for the next week to 10 days. (see map below).  Small scale low pressure areas and frontal systems will develop in this trough and then be ejected out it and across California.  Each of systems will bring moderate rain and gusty south winds to California.   The first of these systems is now moving into our area and will spread wind and rain across the area today.   Southerly winds will gust 45 to 50 mph this afternoon in many areas.  Snow levels will be high.  Tuesday we will have party cloudy to cloudy skies with periods of rain or showers.

Wednesday and early Thursday clouds and showers will continue along the coast range and across Trinity and Siskiyou counties.   The rest of the north state will be partly cloudy to partly sunny.   The next frontal system will move through late Thursday and Friday with a stronger system late Saturday and Sunday.   Each of these systems will bring moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds to Northern California.  Snow levels will be high. 

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Saturday, October 22, 2016

Weather Discussion for Saturday October 22, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 17-Oct 24 (high/low)...Redding 77/48, Chico 77/46, Quincy 68/31, Chester 65/31, Susanville 64/34, Grass Valley 71/42, Weaverville 72/34, Mt. Shasta 65/35, Yreka 66/35, Alturas 65/27

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The high pressure that has been over our area is weakening and shifting eastward.   The low pressure area shown on this morning's satellite picture (below) in the Gulf of Alaska is moving southeastward and will be off the Pacific Northwest coast by late Sunday.  This system will bring increasing clouds to the area on Sunday and then light rain or showers Sunday night and Monday.  Snow levels will be high.  Gusty south to southwest winds will occur Sunday night and Monday.  Tuesday the low will move northeastward into Western Canada (see map below).  Tuesday there will still be showers along the coast range and over Trinity and Siskiyou counties with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies elsewhere.  

After Tuesday all the forecast models have a different solution or forecast for the next several days.  If you look at the map below you can see that as the low moved into Western Canada, another low pressure area has dropped southward and is a few hundred miles off our coast.  This low will have a lot of moisture with it and the southwest flow ahead of it will push that moisture over California.  One model holds the low off the coast and weakens it....one sends it over Northern California and one sends it over southern California.  At this time I think it will move over Northern California later in the week.   So Wednesday there will still be showers over the coastal and northern mountains with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies elsewhere.   Thursday and Friday look cloudy with periods of rain or showers.  Snow levels will be high.

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Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Weather Discussion for Wednesday October 19, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 17-Oct 24 (high/low)...Redding 77/48, Chico 77/46, Quincy 68/31, Chester 65/31, Susanville 64/34, Grass Valley 71/42, Weaverville 72/34, Mt. Shasta 65/35, Yreka 66/35, Alturas 65/27

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

High pressure is along the coast and will hold there through Saturday.   This morning's satellite picture (below) shows frontal systems are moving by just to our north.  These fronts will bring a few clouds to the far north end of the state and Friday there could be a few sprinkles over the north west corner of the state.   The areas from Mt Shasta southward will be mostly sunny through Saturday with above normal temperatures and light winds.  

Sunday a low pressure area will be along the coast and this system will bring clouds and showers to Northern California Sunday and Monday. (see map below).   Snow levels will be high.  There will be a break Tuesday and then it looks like another system will move through late Wednesday and Thursday.

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Monday, October 17, 2016

Weather Discussion for Monday October 17, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 17-Oct 24 (high/low)...Redding 77/48, Chico 77/46, Quincy 68/31, Chester 65/31, Susanville 64/34, Grass Valley 71/42, Weaverville 72/34, Mt. Shasta 65/35, Yreka 66/35, Alturas 65/27

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

Periods of rain and showers today as another low pressure trough or frontal system moves across Northern California.   Light to moderate south winds will occur today.   Snow levels will be 5000 to 6000 feet.  The showers will taper off tonight.   Tuesday there will still be some lingering showers over the higher elevations but they will be ending during the day.   The valley will be partly to mostly sunny Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday high pressure will be over our area (see map below).   The north state will be mostly sunny with above normal temperatures and light winds.  The high will begin to weaken Sunday and a low pressure trough will moving into the area Monday and Tuesday.

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Sunday, October 16, 2016

Weather Discussion for Sunday October 16, 2016

Normal high and low temperatures for Oct 10-Oct 17 (high/low)...Redding 81/50, Chico 81/48, Quincy 72/32, Chester 68/31, Susanville 67/36, Grass Valley 73/43, Weaverville 75/35, Mt. Shasta 66/37, Yreka 71/37, Alturas 68/28

This blog will be issued every Monday morning and updated if the weather is changing or critical or interesting weather events are occurring.

The low pressure area intensified off the coast and moved into Washington yesterday.  It was impressive to watch it evolve.  However, it became a smaller or tighter storm and effects in Northern California were less than forecast.  Redding had a max wind of 53 mph and while the coastal and northern mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra got significant precipitation the valley didn't see as much.
Don't worry we still have one move moderate frontal system to move through today and then a weaker one on Monday.  Today we will periods of rain or showers with possible thunderstorms this afternoon.  Gusty south winds will precede this front with gusts to 45 mph in the north valley and 50 to 55 mph over the higher elevations.  Snow levels will be high.  Monday the north state will be partly cloudy to cloudy with rain over the higher elevations and showers in the valley.   Snow levels will drop to 5000 to 6000 feet.  There will still be some lingering showers over the higher elevations Tuesday but they will end by late afternoon.   The valley should be partly to mostly sunny Tuesday.  

Wednesday through the weekend high pressure will be along the west coast and over the western U.S. (see map below).   Northern California will be mostly sunny with above normal temperatures.  Light to moderate north winds are expected Wednesday.

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